Long-Term Reports and Analysis
CR has an extensive database of economic and price data. From this database, long-term projections can add value to longer forecasts as depicted below.
AYERS BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX FROM 1790
AYERS BUSINESS ACTIVITY INDEX FROM 1930
RETAIL SALES AND FOUR CYCLES
Cycles: 26.2, 8.08, 81.6, 65.4 months
The 4-cycle composite suggests that sales have hit a low. The difference between this projection and the last one is that this one pushes the next peak in retail sales out further in time. This demonstrates that the reported numbers are coming in stronger than the cycles indicated in the January report.